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Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Sharp Market Reversal

Published November 12, 2025
psxmorning-brief2025-11-12

Analyst's Corner: Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Sharp Market Reversal

Analyst's Corner: Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Sharp Market Reversal Market Summary The Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced a significant downturn today,

KSE-100 Close
157,870.50
-3,667.91(-2.27%)
Volume
836.43M
Shares Traded
Value
38.08B
PKR
Advancers vs Decliners
79vs364
Main Board Breadth

KSE-100 Performance (Last 30 Days)

October 13, 2025 November 11, 2025

Latest Close
157,870.50
-3,667.90
167,347162,040156,733Oct 13Oct 28Nov 11

Foreign vs. Local Flow

Net portfolio activity, USD millions

0.0Foreign (FIPI)-2.47Local (LIPI)+2.47

Follow the Money: Who's Buying and Selling?

Net activity by investor cohort (USD millions)

0.0INDIVIDUALS+3.49MUTUAL FUNDS+2.07COMPANIES+1.14OTHER ORGANIZATION+0.56NBFC+0.02FOREIGN INDIVIDUAL-0.00INSURANCE COMPANIES-0.27OVERSEAS PAKISTANI-0.70BROKER PROPRIETARY TRADING-1.10FOREIGN CORPORATES-1.76BANKS / DFI-3.43

Movers and Shakers: Top Sector Performance

Market impact by sector

While the overall index was mixed, some sectors showed remarkable strength while others bore the brunt of the sell-off. Here are the day's biggest winners and losers.

Top 5 Gainers

Top 5 Losers

0.0TEXTILE COMPOSITE4.8857INV. BANKS / INV. COS./SECURITIES COS.0.9938JUTE0.0338FERTILIZER-13.7121CEMENT-23.117AUTOMOBILE ASSEMBLER-34.189OIL & GAS EXPLORATION COMPANIES-43.9164COMMERCIAL BANKS-51.1322

Board Meatings Today

Company

Lotte Chemical Pakistan Limited

Subject

To Consider the Matter other than Financial Results

Company

Pakistan Telecommunication Company Ltd

Subject

To Consider the Matter other than Financial Results

Analyst's Corner: Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Sharp Market Reversal

Market Summary

The Pakistan Stock Exchange experienced a significant downturn today, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index shedding 3,667.91 points, or 2.27%, to close at 157,870.50. This sharp decline marked a notable reversal from the previous session's robust rally, as renewed political and security concerns weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Market breadth was overwhelmingly negative, with 364 scrips declining against only 79 advancers, indicating a broad-based selling pressure across the board. Total traded value stood at approximately PKR 38.08 billion, with a volume of 836.4 million shares.

The market's retreat was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and a fragile domestic security situation, which overshadowed a series of otherwise positive macroeconomic developments. Notably, Pakistan reported a budget surplus of PKR 2.1 trillion for the first quarter of FY26, and the Rupee continued its appreciation against the US dollar. Furthermore, news of Google completing its registration to open an office in Pakistan and a significant surge in net metering generation pointed towards underlying economic resilience and growth in specific sectors. However, these positive catalysts were largely overshadowed by immediate concerns.

Sector-wise, Commercial Banks, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, Automobile Assemblers, and Cement were among the largest negative contributors to the index's decline. Conversely, the Investment Banks/Investment Companies/Securities Cos. and Textile Composite sectors offered minor positive contributions, though insufficient to stem the broader market slide.

Key Takeaways

Geopolitical and Security Concerns Dominant: The primary catalyst for today's sharp market correction was the re-emergence of security concerns, notably a blast in Islamabad and the Defence Minister's subsequent declaration of a

Market Narrative & Newsflow

This article reports a substantial rally in the KSE-100 Index on the previous trading day, driven by improved market sentiment and macroeconomic indicators, including a circular debt settlement plan. It provides a contrasting view of market performance.

Negative

A suicide blast in the federal capital causing multiple casualties significantly escalates security concerns and political instability, directly impacting investor confidence and the overall business environment in Pakistan.

Positive

Reporting a budget surplus in the first quarter of the fiscal year is a strong positive indicator of improving fiscal health and economic stability, which can boost investor confidence in the overall economy and the PSX.

Technical Signals

TradingView daily moving averages
Exponential Moving Average (10)
160,294.34
Sell
Simple Moving Average (10)
159,859.14
Sell
Exponential Moving Average (20)
161,123.68
Sell
Simple Moving Average (20)
162,141.55
Sell
Exponential Moving Average (30)
160,920.19
Sell
Simple Moving Average (30)
163,223.08
Sell
Exponential Moving Average (50)
158,667.55
Sell
Simple Moving Average (50)
160,888.77
Sell
Exponential Moving Average (100)
150,509.25
Buy
Simple Moving Average (100)
150,242.74
Buy
Exponential Moving Average (200)
136,106.34
Buy
Simple Moving Average (200)
133,073.19
Buy
Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26)
162,423.29
Neutral
Volume Weighted Moving Average (20)
Hull Moving Average (9)
159,403.53
Sell